النمذجة الاحصائية للعوامل الاقتصادية والتخطيطية المؤثرة في الانتشار المكاني للوظيفة التجارية لمدينة تكريت لعام 2025

Abstract

This paper aims to analyze the economic, planning, and spatial factors affecting commercial localization in the city of Tikrit and to reveal the spatial variation in the distribution of commercial activities among its neighborhoods. The study adopts a spatial analytical approach through integrating Geographic Information Systems (GIS) with statistical methods, relying on field and spatial data. The Location Quotient (LQ) was used to measure the degree of commercial specialization. The results showed a concentration of commercial activity in the central neighborhoods. Moran’s I test also indicates the existence of a clustered and statistically significant spatial pattern, suggesting that the distribution of commercial activity is not random. To analyze the influencing factors, the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression model was applied. The results demonstrated the importance of land price, mixed land use, and urban development patterns. Given the presence of spatial variation in relationships, the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model was employed, revealing differences in the effects of variables among neighborhoods. The findings show that the influence of mixed land use and urban development patterns is concentrated in the central neighborhoods, whereas the effect of proximity to roads is more pronounced in peripheral neighborhoods. In addition, the Local R² map indicated that the explanatory power of the model is higher in the city center and lower at the edges. The study concludes that commercial localization in Tikrit is characterized by a developed spatial structure, which requires planning policies that take local neighborhood characteristics_into_account