تحليل الاتجاه والتغير الشهري في كمية الأمطار واثرها على التركز الفصلي لأمطار العراق

Abstract

  The study showed that the seasonal concentration of rainfall is affected by the trend of rainfall at the monthly level and that the autumn rain tends to increase in its quantity in some stations and recorded the highest positive decadal change value in Rutba station (4) mm while the highest negative change value in SuIaymaniyah station (-22) mm, which affected the trends of the seasonal concentration of rainfall in these stations, while the trends of rainfall for the winter months recorded negative trends in most of the selected stations and the total monthly changes were reflected in the seasonal change of rainfall for the season and Kirkuk station recorded the highest negative decadal change and reached (-8.4) mm while the highest positive decadal change value in Dohuk station (13) mm, while the monthly trend of rainfall in the spring was random in its values ​​with a low percentage of its importance because the changes in the amount of rainfall are few and have a limited effect on the seasonal level, and Mosul station recorded the highest decadal value of negative change (-13.1) mm while Baghdad had the highest value of wave change for(2.1) mm, it was also shown that The stations studied varied in Classify it as Rain concentration categories’ During the fall, it ranged between its lowest value at Zakho station (13.5) Within the second category, moderate moderation, while the highest value within the fourth category was severe irregularity at Basra station (21.8). As for the results of the concentration index for the winter, there was relatively greater homogeneity than the fall in the distribution of rainfall, as SuIaymaniyah station recorded the lowest value within the first category of the index, with a value of (9.7), while Basra station within the third category, irregular distribution, with the highest value (15.6). As for the outputs of the seasonal rainfall concentration index for the spring, it showed that there was a clear variation in the concentration categories within the specified stations, as they were distributed in the concentration levels over the last three categories of concentration levels, with the lowest value within the second category (12.2), while the highest value within the fourth category was severe irregular distribution (20.1), in addition to The rainy season rains were characterized by being more concentrated in falling in the direction North The opposite is also true, as it was found that the fall season was the most concentrated on Monthly level In the fall while winter He was The most homogeneous and distributed monthly precipitation, while the spring season was relatively average in homogeneity.