ديناميكية التَغيير المُناخي والتَنبؤ المُستقبلي لِدرجات الحَرارة والأَمطار باستخدام GIS لمَدينة كَركوك

Abstract

       The topic of climate change is one of the topics that have occupied the attention of many researchers, scientists, and climatologists in particular, because it is one of the topics related to human life on the surface of the earth, as well as its impact on all activities practiced and aspects of life, whether health, agricultural, industrial, etc. The research consisted of three sections. The first section included the theoretical framework. The second section included the geographical analysis of the elements of climate. The third section discussed the dynamics of climate change and future predictions of maximum and minimum temperatures and rainfall, in addition to conclusions, recommendations and sources.      

       The research summarizes the presence of clear indicators of climate change in temperature and rainfall in the study area. The maximum temperature increased by a difference of (4°C) and the minimum temperature by (4.7°C), that meaning the temperature is heading towards an increase and a large fluctuation in its path. The amount of rainfall also decreased by a difference of (241.8 mm) and is heading towards a decrease. The correlation between rainfall appeared to be negative (-0.4) with the maximum temperature, and also negative (-0.2) for the minimum, that is an inverse relationship, and the result is that the more rainfall, the lower the temperature. By following the time series of temperatures and rainfall. The study concludes that the next climate cycle will witness climate change, disturbances in the movement of the atmosphere, and the occurrence of some phenomena: such as severe hot and cold waves, flash floods, new types of clouds, thunderstorms, as well as years of drought with rainy years; therefore, it is necessary to use means and technologies that can reduce climate change and its dangers.