The impact of climate change on extreme events: A comparative study of climate contracts in Iraq using SPI-12, TX90p, and RX1day indices
Article Sidebar
Main Article Content
Abstract
Iraq is among the regions most vulnerable to climate change impacts in Southwest Asia due to its location within the arid and semi-arid zone and its heavy reliance on rainfall as a primary water resource. Increasing environmental pressures and ineffective water management have intensified the occurrence of extreme climatic events such as droughts, heat waves, and intense rainfall episodes. This study aims to analyze the temporal and spatial variations of extreme climatic phenomena in Iraq using three internationally recognized climate indices: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI-12), the Warm Days Index (TX90p), and the Maximum One-Day Precipitation Index (RX1day). The analysis is based on climatic data for the period 1982–2024 from three meteorological stations representing different climatic regions: Mosul, Baghdad, and Basra. The results indicate a significant upward trend in warm days across all stations, while drought and extreme precipitation patterns show spatial variability. These findings highlight the increasing intensity of climate extremes in Iraq and emphasize the need for effective climate adaptation strategies, environmental planning, and sustainable climate resource management.
Article Details
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
References
- Almazroui, M., Islam, M. N., Saeed, S., & Athar, H. (2022). Recent observed and projected climate extremes in the Middle East and North Africa region. Climatic Change, 172(3), 1–25. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-022-03465-x
- Donat, M. G., Lowry, A. L., Alexander, L. V., O’Gorman, P. A., & Maher, N. (2016). More extreme precipitation in the world’s dry and wet regions. Nature Climate Change, 6(5), 508–513. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2941
- IPCC. (2021). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press.
- McKee, T. B., Doesken, N. J., & Kleist, J. (1993, January). The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. In Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology (Vol. 17, pp. 179–183). American Meteorological Society.
- Peterson, T. C., Folland, C., Gruza, G., Hogg, W., Mokssit, A., & Plummer, N. (2005). Monitoring and indices of climate extremes: A review. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 86(6), 737–745. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-86-6-737
- WMO (World Meteorological Organization). (2012). Standardized Precipitation Index User Guide (WMO-No. 1090). Geneva: WMO.
- Zhang, X., Alexander, L., Hegerl, G. C., Jones, P., Tank, A. K., Peterson, T. C., ... & Zwiers, F. (2011). Indices for monitoring changes in extremes based on daily temperature and precipitation data. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 2(6), 851–870.
- Al-Jabri, Ahmed Khalil. (2019). Standardized Definition (SPI) in Anbar Governorate. Journal of Climatology, 15(2),
- Alawi, Mohammed Kadhim. (2020). Temperature Assessment in Wasit Governorate, Kuwait, using the TX90p Index. Algerian Journal of Climatology, 28(1)
- Hussein, Raad Jassim, Mohammed, Ali Saad, and Abdullah, Karim Nasser. (2021). Using Climatic Indicators to Monitor Extreme Phenomena in Iraq. Brazilian Journal of Climatology, 12(3).