Cartographic Analysis of Spatio-Temporal Population Changes: An Applied Study of Al-Hawija District (1957–2024)
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Abstract
This study aims to conduct a cartographic analysis of the spatiotemporal changes in the population of Al-Hawija District over the period (1957–2024), using a set of quantitative indicators (the temporal concentration coefficient (TCI), the temporal fluctuation coefficient (CV), and the population stability index (PSI). The study relied on historical multi-stage population data, which was processed and analyzed using cartographic mapping techniques supported by statistical-spatial modeling.
The results revealed clear spatial and temporal disparities in population distribution, with some stages concentrated in distinct demographic booms, while others were characterized by relative stability. The indicators also revealed that some districts experienced radical changes in their demographic structure, while others maintained remarkable stability. The results of the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) revealed that infrastructure and services (road network, proximity to the river, schools, health centers, and water reservoirs) were influential factors in explaining spatial variation in population density, accounting for more than 57% of the explanatory value. The remaining percentage reflected the importance of introducing additional determinants related to economic, social, and security factors.
The study concludes that spatiotemporal cartographic analysis provides an effective tool for understanding population growth dynamics and variations, and contributes to formulating an integrated spatial vision that helps decision-makers guide sustainable development plans at the local and regional levels.
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