نمذجة التطرفات المناخية واثرها على عملية تحرك المواد لطية مكحول ضمن منطقة المسحك في محافظة صلاح الدين

Abstract

Climate extremes are a primary factor influencing the phenomenon of material movement, as they represent one of the most effective geomorphological processes that exert a direct impact on slope surfaces. The danger of this phenomenon lies in its significant secondary effects, particularly on human settlements and agricultural lands located at the foot of slopes or at the mouths of valleys where materials are deposited. Given that the study area falls within a geomorphological context characterized by steep slopes, particularly at the foot of the Makhol hills, it has become essential to analyze the causal factors contributing to this phenomenon and to develop preventive measures and spatial treatments to mitigate its negative effects.The study employed a digital modeling approach to climate extremes, focusing on outlier values within climate data, such as the frequency of heatwaves, intense rainfall storms, and freezing and thawing phenomena associated with frost. The analysis results showed that climate extremes are the primary driver of material movement, and that the dominance of these extremes within the framework of the region's arid climate has endowed it with exceptional characteristics, leading to the recurrence of landslides and rockfalls, as well as the activation of weathering processes in various forms. This reflects a clear interaction between climatic conditions, geological structure, and hydrology in the emergence of these phenomena.